RCMP Tracing Data Show Most Crime Guns Sourced Inside Canada, Not Smuggled

SECTION 1: THE HOOK (Headline & Safety Overview)

Internal analyses from the RCMP indicate that in both 2023 and 2024, the majority of crime guns with an identifiable origin were traced back to sources within Canada, rather than being smuggled from abroad. The figures come from reports prepared by the RCMP’s Canadian National Firearms Tracing Centre and Criminal Firearms Strategic and Operational Support Services, obtained under the Access to Information Act and covering firearm traces completed across most provinces and territories.

In 2024 alone, the RCMP tracing centre completed 6,951 firearm traces. Of these, 4,197 were classified as crime guns, and 2,814 of those had a known source. Among that subset, 71 per cent were domestically sourced long guns, nine per cent were domestically sourced handguns, 17 per cent were smuggled handguns, and two per cent were smuggled long guns, with a small remainder falling into other categories. The 2023 tracing data show a similar pattern, with 86 per cent of traceable crime guns deemed domestic and 14 per cent identified as smuggled. RCMP officials confirm that the analytical report based on 2025 traces is still in progress and not yet publicly available, meaning these 2023–2024 figures remain the latest comprehensive snapshot.

SECTION 2: COMMUNITY CONTEXT & SOCIAL SENTIMENT

The tracing results have quickly become part of an ongoing, highly politicized national discussion about guns and public safety. On platforms such as X and Reddit, some users argue that the data undercut a long-standing public narrative that crime guns in Canada are primarily smuggled handguns from the United States. These commentators see the RCMP numbers—especially the prominence of domestic long guns—as evidence that policy needs to address how firearms are stored, diverted, stolen, or misused within Canada itself, including in rural regions where long gun ownership is common.

Other voices online question how representative the RCMP tracing figures are of street-level gun crime, particularly in large cities. Skeptical users point out that tracing is easier when a firearm has a known history or registration, and they argue that this may bias the data toward firearms already in Canadian systems. From this perspective, the figures are interpreted as incomplete and not necessarily reflective of the proportion of undocumented handguns used in urban shootings. A third group of commentators expresses general confusion and mistrust, noting the gap between earlier political messaging that emphasized U.S. handgun smuggling and the newer tracing picture that highlights domestic sources.

It is also important to understand the geographic and methodological limits of the RCMP reports. The tracing centre notes that its data are not fully representative of Ontario and Quebec, which operate their own provincial firearms tracing units. As a result, the 2023–2024 statistics provide a significant national sample but do not capture every crime gun traced in Canada. For readers seeking a broader backdrop to these findings, national indicators such as the Canada National Crime Overview and other Canadian crime statistics show that overall violent crime remains comparatively low by international standards, even as firearm policy remains contentious.

Despite polarized rhetoric, Canada’s larger cities, including Toronto, continue to rank among the safest urban centres in North America in global assessments, with homicide and major violent crime rates well below those of many comparable U.S. cities. At the same time, specific concerns such as property crime, auto theft, and localized gun violence persist in certain regions. The RCMP tracing data sit within this mixed landscape: they do not signal a sudden national surge in gun crime, but they do challenge oversimplified explanations that attribute crime guns almost exclusively to cross-border smuggling.

SECTION 3: STATISTICAL OVERVIEW

The RCMP reports shed light on the types and sources of firearms involved in criminal investigations, ranging from break and enters through to homicides. In 2024, 67 of the traced crime guns were privately manufactured firearms, sometimes referred to as homemade or 3D-printed “ghost guns.” Among crime guns where both source and action type were known, semi-automatic firearms were most common. The RCMP definition of a “crime gun” is broad: it includes weapons used or suspected to have been used in criminal offences, guns with obliterated or altered serial numbers, found firearms not reported lost or stolen, and certain replicas, toys, pellet guns, air guns, and 3D-printed devices when they are involved in offences.

Only a small share of the 2024 crime gun traces—about four per cent—had a documented link to organized crime groups such as outlaw motorcycle gangs, street gangs, or traditional organized crime networks. Among those 184 firearms, 147 were domestically sourced and 37 were smuggled. This breakdown suggests that while organized crime is a visible driver of some high-profile shootings, a large part of the national crime gun picture involves other contexts: rural incidents, interpersonal violence, property crime, and unsafe storage or diversion of firearms already in Canada.

When placed alongside broader crime trends, the tracing data reinforce a nuanced picture of safety in Canada. Publicly reported figures from major services such as the Toronto Police Service show that in recent years, overall major crime indicators and homicides have declined, with gun-related killings in that city dropping significantly between 2024 and 2025. Despite this, surveys indicate many residents believe crime is rising. Similar patterns appear at the national level: aggregate data from Crime Canada and other statistical sources show relatively stable or improving violent-crime trends, while anxiety about crime and firearms has intensified.

Public Safety Canada and policing agencies have repeatedly emphasized concerns about cross-border handgun smuggling from the United States, and those concerns remain valid, particularly for certain urban handgun markets. However, the RCMP’s latest tracing results indicate that focusing exclusively on international smuggling does not capture the full risk environment. Domestic long guns and legally acquired firearms that are later stolen, trafficked, or misused play a substantial role in the crime gun inventory. Effective policy responses are therefore likely to require a mix of border enforcement, measures addressing diversion and theft within Canada, and community-based violence prevention, rather than a singular focus on any one source.

Finally, it is worth underlining that tracing statistics do not equate to total gun crime. Not every firearm used or possessed in an offence is successfully traced, and some categories of illegal guns—especially unregistered or heavily modified weapons—may be underrepresented in traceable data. Nonetheless, the RCMP’s 2023–2024 reports add important empirical detail to a debate that is often driven by perception and political framing. For citizens trying to understand the real balance of risks in their communities, these data are best interpreted alongside national indicators such as the National Crime News stream and official statistical releases.

About This Report

This safety alert was generated by aggregating data from local authorities, community reports, and open-source intelligence. Our mission at Crime Canada is to provide citizens with localized safety data and context. We are not the original creators of the underlying news reports.

Primary Source: Information in this report was initially covered by News Staff for CityNews Calgary.

Additional Research & Context

• Recent national comparisons of Canadian and U.S. crime patterns, including discussion of property crime and violent crime rates in major cities, are summarized in a Fraser Institute analysis of cross-border crime trends.
• Coverage by CBC News and other outlets, drawing on Toronto Police Service data, documents declining homicides and shootings in Toronto even as public concern about crime remains high.
• Public Safety Canada briefings and RCMP Canadian Firearms Program materials provide further context on handgun smuggling, organized crime, and the role of domestic firearms in gun-related offences.